Countries shape their destiny through the interplay of internal resolve and external forces. Few nations have experienced as many upheavals as Afghanistan, whose fate, though deeply influenced by foreign interventions, has ultimately been determined by its own people.
Afghanistan's struggle with foreign occupations began in the 19th century with British incursions, continued with the Soviet invasion in the late 20th century, and culminated with a two-decade-long American presence. The United States, initially reluctant to intervene, was compelled to act after the 2001 terrorist attacks, aiming to dismantle the Taliban's stronghold and eliminate its role as a haven for terrorism.
During the U.S. occupation, Afghanistan witnessed significant progress and exposure to global advancements—opportunities the repressive Taliban regime had denied its people. However, the withdrawal of American troops in 2021 marked the return of the Taliban, albeit the wheels of change have started rolling again for the country. Though from the news within the country one may deduce that the regime continues to be as oppressive as ever, feeble winds of change may have started blowing across the barren cold mountains.
The modern Taliban may harbour marginally more progressive attitudes which are probably shaped by two key factors. First, the rise of ISIS has introduced competitive fundamentalism, pressuring the Taliban to adapt to maintain influence. Second, twenty years of Western influence have raised the aspirations of a younger, internet-savvy Afghan population. Recognizing these changes, the Taliban appears aware that some degree of freedom is essential to govern effectively.
Yet, Afghanistan faces a dilemma. The 2020s are not the 1990s—no country can remain isolated indefinitely. The Taliban’s fundamentalist ideology has led to global estrangement, with nations like the U.S., Europe, and India refusing formal diplomatic ties. Complicating matters further, tensions with Pakistan, Afghanistan's eastern neighbour and erstwhile ally, have escalated over border disputes. The contentious Durand Line, drawn during British colonial rule, remains a flashpoint, with the Taliban refusing to acknowledge it as the official boundary.
Afghanistan faces a pressing need for allies as its relations with Pakistan continue to fray, a development made all the more ironic by Pakistan's own role in facilitating the Taliban's resurgence. The most suitable ally in this situation is India. Historically, India has invested billions in Afghanistan's development and shares a strategic rivalry with Pakistan. However, India's reluctance to engage with the Taliban stems from the regime's oppressive treatment of women. Also the hijacking of Indian Airlines Flight 814 by Pakistan-backed terrorists in 1999, which ended with India being forced to concede to their demands at Kabul Airport under Taliban pressure, remains a vivid and painful memory in the Indian collective consciousness.
Despite these challenges, geopolitics often fosters unlikely alliances. The Taliban recognizes India’s potential to provide medical aid, open opportunities for Afghan businesses and students, and foster grassroots connections. Such cooperation could pave the way for India to influence the Taliban's policies, especially concerning women's rights—a critical issue for Afghanistan's progress.
A partnership with India could also encourage Western nations to reconsider their stance, creating a ripple effect that benefits the Afghan people. While the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, these developments hint at a future for Afghanistan that may be brighter than anticipated.
