The internal politics of a country has rarely been so deeply influenced by another nations political dynamics as Bangladesh has been by India. This influence is largely attributed to Indias pivotal role in the birth of Bangladesh as an independent nation. In 1971, Bangladesh emerged as a sovereign state following the overthrow of a brutal Pakistani regime by the Mukti Bahini, an indigenous Bengali militant group, with substantial support from India. Formerly known as East Pakistan, this region gained independence after a bitter war between India and Pakistan, culminating in Pakistan's surrender.
At the forefront of the liberation movement was Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, a charismatic Bengali leader who openly advocated for the separation of East Pakistan. He emphasized that East Pakistan, predominantly Bengali in population, had distinct cultural and ethnic roots that set it apart from the ruling Punjabi elite of Pakistan. Historically, Pakistan, which included East Pakistan, was formed in 1947 as a result of the partition of British India into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-dominated Pakistan.
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his entire family were assassinated in 1975 by discontented factions of the Bangladesh Army. The primary reason for this discontent was Rahmans establishment of the Jatiya Rakkhi Bahini (JRB), a paramilitary force intended to support law enforcement. However, funding for the JRB came at the expense of the Bangladeshi Army, whose budget was slashed to less than 15% of the national allocationa stark contrast to the nearly 50% it enjoyed during Pakistan's rule. Other contributing factors included the country's dire economic situation and the devastating famine of 1974.
Despite warnings from IndiaBangladesh's key ally and a significant supporter of Rahmanabout an impending military coup, Rahman dismissed the concerns. After his assassination, stability returned briefly under General Ziaur Rahman, who assumed de facto control in 1977 following the imposition of martial law by the Justice Sayem-led government. General Zia steered Bangladesh away from Indian influence, fostering stronger ties with Pakistan, China, and Western nations. He also founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which adopted an anti-India stance. However, Zia was assassinated on May 30, 1981, by disgruntled army officers. Their grievances stemmed from Zias alleged politicization of the military, particularly his playing the officers who fought in the 1971 Liberation War against those repatriated from the Pakistan Army under the India-Pakistan treaty.
Today, the BNP is led by Zia's widow, Begum Khaleda Zia, who has served as Prime Minister twice. In contrast to the BNP, the Awami League (AL)founded by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and currently led by his daughter, Sheikh Hasinamaintains a pro-India stance. Both parties have been criticized for rigged elections, corruption, and imprisoning opposition leaders through dubious trials.
A third player, the Jatiya Party, was established by General Hussain Muhammad Ershad, who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1983. However, Ershad was forced to resign in December 1990 following nationwide protests led jointly by Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina. Since 1990, Bangladeshi politics has largely revolved around the BNP and the Awami League, with their leaders representing competing visions for the country: the BNP's anti-India stance versus the Awami League's pro-India approach.
Bangladeshs political landscape remains deeply influenced by the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan, stemming from their partition in 1947. This dynamic continues to shape the country's political discourse and governance.
Bangladeshs current political situation is facing an unprecedented crisis. In August, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled Dhaka for New Delhi amidst violent student protests and was replaced by Nobel Laureate Mohammed Yunus as Chief Advisor to the interim government. The turmoil stems from allegations of rigged elections in January, which secured Hasina a controversial fourth term.
Public outrage intensified after the introduction of the Bangladesh Quota System that allowed preferential government job access to descendants of the Mukti Bahini, sparking a violent student-led movement. Hasina's harsh crackdown led to hundreds of deaths, further fuelling dissent. When the army refused her orders to suppress the protests, Hasina was left with no choice but to flee the country.
The Yunus-led government in Bangladesh is proving to be exceedingly weak, as initial anti-Hasina protests have escalated into widespread anti-India sentiment. This unrest has disproportionately impacted the country's minority communitiesHindus, Christians, and Buddhistswho are facing relentless attacks. Pro-Pakistan Muslim fundamentalists have taken to the streets, with reports of Hindu homes and temples being vandalized on an almost daily basis. The government's inability to curb this violence has drawn widespread international condemnation.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is pressuring Yunus to call early elections, believes it can capitalize on the charged anti-Awami League and anti-India atmosphere. However, the party is growing frustrated with the current interim regimes inaction. Yunus, for his part, appears to be exploring the formation of his own political party, positioning himself for future elections and aiming to secure the premiership. His tepid response to the attacks on minorities seems rooted in a political strategy to outmanoeuvre the BNP by tapping into the prevailing anti-Hindu and anti-India sentiment.
For India, the situation calls for a cautious "wait and watch" approach. No doubt whatever the narrative about the harassment and prosecution of Hindus in the public domain, India is quietly employing its diplomatic muscle to keep channels open with Yunus and the BNP top brass. Both Yunus and the BNP are well aware that India still holds the trump card Hasina who though not given asylum has been allowed to remain in the country.
Meanwhile, Hasina, reportedly in a secret hideout in India, has begun issuing statements criticizing the Yunus governments failure to restore order. Her remarks suggest she may be eyeing a return to Bangladesh, potentially with support from both India and the incoming U.S. administration, to reclaim power. Though she had fled her country the former prime minister has a considerable support base. She may have been brutal with the opposition, but she was instrumental for making Bangladesh a global garment hub after China.
On the other hand Yunus enjoys support from influential allies within U.S. President Joe Bidens administration, complicating the diplomatic calculus. However, with President-elect Donald Trumpwho has openly expressed support for Bangladesh's Hindu and other minority communitiesset to take office on January 20, the geopolitical dynamics is expected to shift considerably.�
In sum, the situation in Bangladesh remains highly volatile, with the spectre of further violence and bloodshed looming on the horizon.
