Predicting election outcomes in democracies can be straightforward when theres clear public support for a popular candidate. However, in tightly contested races with evenly matched candidates, it becomes a high-stakes game, played out in the public arena and amplified by the media, including social platforms. The upcoming U.S. election, less than a week away, is shaping up to be one of these close contests, likely going down to the wire. With polling updates nearly every two days, each projecting razor-thin margins, national excitement and global curiosity are at an all-time high.
The latest CNN poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one point, setting up an election that could be historic in more ways than one. At stake is the re-election of a past President advocating sweeping administrative change, including a promise to use the military domestically against Americans opposed to him and scraping individual federal income tax, and making up the shortfall in revenue by imposing a substantial 60% tariff on Chinese imports. On the other side of the spectrum Harriss potential victory would be groundbreaking, marking the first time a womanand one of Afro-Asian heritageholding the most powerful office in the world.
The results of the upcoming November 5th election hinge primarily on 11 key battleground states. Among them, Republicans have generally performed better than Democrats since 2000 in seven states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa. Meanwhile, Democrats in the same period had stronger results in the remaining four states: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This election cycle, much of the media and public attention is concentrated on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The numbers indicate that the party winning these three pivotal states could very likely secure the overall victory. Though these states have consistently favoured Democratswith the exception of 2016, when they swung for Trumpthere is considerable intrigue surrounding the potential outcome this year. Adding to the anticipation, these states have a strong tendency to vote uniformly for one party, further intensifying expectations on both sides of the political spectrum.
However, even if Trump or Harris secure victories in the key three states, they may not be able to take their win for granted. Some shifts in the underlying support for the Republicans in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolinawhere Republicans have historically held an advantagesuggest that history may not repeat itself this time. Also Iowa, while typically leaning Republican, has shown a relatively low Republican win percentage since the 2000 election. �The state had flipped during the Obama years though Trump clawed it back into the Republican fold in 2016. This makes Iowa a potential weak spot for Trump, and Harriss team is keenly aware that Iowas six Electoral College votes could be pivotal in a tight race. Similarly Nevada cannot be taken for granted by Harris. These smaller states can well become kingmakers in such tight races.
As Election Day approaches, the opinion polls are tightening, with projected results falling within a narrow 3% margin of error. Currently, most polls show only a 1-2% difference between Trump and Harris. This close race has made endorsing a particular candidate a risky move for many organizations. For instance, The Washington Post recently ended its 36-year tradition of endorsing a presidential candidate.
But how trustworthy are the polls? For one, are respondents being fully honest in their answers? Secondly, opinions are dynamicevents occurring after a poll is taken can shift a voters perspective. A peripheral Democratic supporter, for example, might reconsider his position after an event like the assassination attempt on Trump. Also there are a notable number of silent Trump supporters who may not openly share their voting intentions. While pollsters account for these uncertainties in their 3% error margin, tight races like this one still leave room for unexpected shifts. The one factor lending credibility to the numerous polls nationwide is their convergence: most currently predict a narrow lead for Harris by just 1-2 points over Trump.��
Predicting the outcome of this election is a tough call due to the extremely close conditions. However, by analyzing voter patterns in the 11 crucial battleground states over the past six elections (see chart), starting in 2000, alongside current opinion polls, it's likely that Harris will secure a narrow win. The spreadsheet below shows the winning margin (in percentage points) for each party in each election year. The final column provides the average winning margin of the party that has won the majority of these elections.�
Additionally, the second column lists the number of electoral votes assigned to each state. While pollsters will be cautious and will like to refrain from relying heavily on the law of averages and historical trends, the chart brings out clearly the voting choice of Americans in last 24 years. This extensive period is too significant to disregard.
Whatever be the results, Americans should consider the possibility that a narrow election win could lead to disputes and legal challenges, filling the post-election period with accusations and counterclaims. This may blur the election's outcome and even weaken public trust in the democratic processa potential drawback of a dynamic democracy.
