War clouds are ominously gathering between Israel and Iran threatening to unleash a devastating storm. A closer look of the events of the past few days and the last ten months however reveals a surprising truth: the likelihood of an all-out war is incredibly low. In fact, I'd go so far as to say the chances of war are virtually nonexistent. But why?
The answer lies in the fact that the key players in this high-stakes game - Israel, Iran, the US, and even Iran's allies Russia and China - are simply not prepared for a war.
Despite the rising tensions and inflammatory rhetoric, none of the nations involved are willing to take the catastrophic leap into war. Notably, the rhetoric has been relatively subdued among these nations. Although no one has claimed responsibility for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Israel is widely suspected to be behind the killing. The operation itself has been so smoothly executed that there is no evidence left behind to track the perpetrators of the crime. This is a tell tale sign of the way Israels external intelligence agency Mossad operates. Reports suggest that bombs were planted two months prior inside Haniyeh's preferred guest house in Tehran, which if true, implies potential involvement from within Haniyeh's security circle and Iran's own security personnel. The assassination has undoubtedly dealt a significant blow to the prestige of the Iranian regime.
Iran has since issued a statement claiming a
guided bomb launched from an aerial platform was used, but this assertion lacks
concrete evidence, such as radar or satellite signatures. Furthermore, Iran has
declared its right to retaliate against Israel at a time and manner of its
choosing, stopping short of declaring all-out war. Iran is aware of the
consequences of an open war with Israel and the role its all weather ally the
United States will play.� Israel too is
aware of the complexities of all out war. To better understand the
complications of the current Middle East crisis, it's crucial to examine each
protagonist's motivations and limitations. By doing so, we can understand the
delicate balance of power and the reasons why the chances of an open
Israel-Iran conflict are extremely limited.
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Iran
Iran's capacity for an all-out war with Israel is limited, partly due to the presence of the formidable US Middle East fleet it would have to challenge. This was clearly demonstrated in the attack on Israel on April 13th, in response to the destruction of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on 1st April of this year. In this attack, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, along with Lebanons Hezbollah and Yemens Houthis, launched nearly 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and over 120 ballistic missiles at Israel.
The Israel Defence Forces utilized the Arrow 3 and David's Sling systems to intercept many of these incoming weapons. Additionally, American, British, French, and Jordanian air forces participated in the defence, with France deploying warships to provide radar coverage at Jordan's request. Jordan intercepted objects entering its airspace to protect its citizens. Israel reported that the coalition, under the defensive operation codenamed Iron Shield, destroyed 99 percent of the incoming weapons, most before they reached Israeli airspace.
Given its April experience, Iran is unlikely to engage in direct warfare against Israel, recognizing the difficulty of winning against Israel's superior military. Instead, Iran is expected to use its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, to launch missile attacks on Israel. Although these attacks will likely be repelled, there is a significant risk of civilians in Lebanon being caught in the crossfire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly stated his willingness to invade Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah. Consequently, while Iran may remain relatively unaffected by the conflict, the stakes are much higher for Lebanon.
There is another country where Iran is able to considerably flex its muscles. In Iraq Tehran-backed militant groups have been exerting considerable pressure on Iraqi authorities, demanding the expulsion of American military bases from the country. So there is a fair chance that these militants may attack American military bases.� How the Americans play out these threats will be consequential to future US Iraq relations, which of course is a different story.
Israel
Israel is reluctant to engage in a war with Iran unless absolutely necessary. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) is currently heavily engaged with Hamas in Gaza. The IDF is unlikely to want to open another front with Iran until Hamas is fully neutralized. Additionally, Israel is facing a shortage of ammunition due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Therefore, an Israel strike on Iran at this juncture may not be a wise decision.
But that doesnt mean Israel will back out of a strike on Iran. Unlike Iran whose military capabilities are limited compared to that of Israel, the latter usually will have no qualms to strike Iran if such needs arise. Earlier also it has used its F-16s to strike establishments under the Iran nuclear programme.
United States
The United States is currently in the midst of a Presidential election year. While the Pentagon is rapidly deploying military assets to the Gulf, engaging in a full-scale war with Iran is likely the last thing on President Biden's mind. He is persistently pressuring Netanyahu to stand down and withdraw forces from Gaza. However, Israeli politicians have shown no inclination to comply so far.
Russia
Russia is too bogged down in Ukraine to come in assistance of Iran in case of an Iran Israel conflict. This is another reason why Iran will avoid a direct war with Israel.
China
For the Chinese it is economy first. They have close business ties with Israel and have strong ties with Iran both business and military. They also would rather like to avoid escalation of the Middle East conflict.
North Korea
Although North Korea is geographically distant and has little direct influence in the Middle East, its close relationship with Iran is significant. In the event of a large-scale conflict, Iran could rely on North Korea for arms and ammunition.
Arab World
The Palestine conflict is a sensitive issue for Arabian regimes. Except for Qatar, most rulers in these countries seek closer ties with Israel. The Sunni rulers of the Arabian countries are generally wary of Iran's Shia regime, which is a sworn enemy of both the US and Israel. However, the Arab populace harbours strong support for their Palestinian brethren and desires Israel's subjugation. While the Arabian regimes are aware of their citizens' sentiments, they also recognize that, after numerous wars with Israel, the latter is challenging to defeat militarily. Furthermore, overall peace in the Middle East is seen as more conducive to economic growth and progress.
Given the current circumstances, a direct conflict between Israel and Iran is not anticipated in the near future. However, as the broader Middle East conflict involving Israel continues, Iran is likely to keep supporting its proxies to attack Israel, showing little concern for the tragic impact on the people of Lebanon and Yemen. Just as the minimum concern for human life by the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th last year, resulted in a humanitarian crisis for the people of Gaza city.
