October 7, 2023, will be etched in history as a day of infamy, much like the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour - marks a pivotal moment in modern geopolitics. The Japanese attack which roused the United States from a state of inertia, the Hamas terror attack likewise on Israel jolted the nation into decisive action. This resulted in the near destruction of Hamas in Gaza and inflicted significant damage on its ally, Hezbollah, based in Lebanon.
As events unfolded rapidly, Iranlong a dominant force in the Middle East and a key player in the Islamic worldfound itself suddenly vulnerable. With the loss of its primary proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, through which it had extended its influence and exported its Shiite fundamentalism, Iran's strategic position was severely weakened. Exposed and increasingly defenceless against potential attacks from Israel and the United States, Iran now faces not only external threats but also growing internal challenges. The Shiite fundamentalist regime established by the 1979 revolution is under mounting pressure from progressive forces within the country, threatening its hold on power.
The setbacks to Irans influence extend even further. In a dramatic turn of events, the 11-year-old insurgency movement in Syria, long suppressed under the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad, suddenly regained momentum. Rebel forces swiftly launched efforts to overthrow the brutal dictator. Assad, who had ruled Syria with an iron grip since 2000, fled the country, seeking refuge with his steadfast Russian allies. Russia, preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine, was unable to provide significant support. With the systematic decimation of his other allies Hamas and Hezbollah, Assads regime was left at the mercy of the rebel forces. Iran, a staunch supporter of Assad, found itself increasingly isolated and powerless in the absence of Hamas, Hezbollah and Assads Syria.
The implications of these events are far more profound than they might initially appear. The overthrow of Assad led to a swift and aggressive response from Israel, which launched multiple attacks on Syrian defence infrastructure, with a particular focus on air defence systems, combat aircrafts, and air bases. The Israeli military also systematically targeted and destroyed Syrian weapons and ammunition depots. By destroying most of the Syrian air assets, Israel has acquired absolute domination of its airspace enabling its manned and unmanned air assets to easily reach Iranian territoriesvia Iraq.
Moreover, for the first time since 1974, Israeli forces advanced into the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, an area Israel had seized during the final days of the 1967 war with Syria. Under the 1974 disengagement agreement, these zones were under Syrian army control. However, following the withdrawal of Syrian military personnel from these positions after the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the occupation of the vacated areas.
The chain of events beginning on October 7, 2023, carries complex implications with potentially far-reaching consequences. One key factor is the evolving role of T�rkiye. President Recep Tayyip Erdo an has long aspired to restore the significant influence over the Middle East and Southern Europe that the Ottoman Empire wielded for nearly six centuries. In the current geopolitical landscape, Erdo an seeks to assert leadership within the Islamic worlda position traditionally dominated by Saudi Arabia.
Erdo ans ambitions are reflected in his support for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a coalition of Sunni Islamist insurgent groups operating in northern Syria. HTS, which spearheaded efforts to unseat the Assad regime in Damascus, reportedly received T�rkiyes tacit approval to advance its agenda. By backing HTS, Erdo an has effectively positioned allies of T�rkiye at the centre of regional power dynamics, thereby weakening Irans influence in the process. This strategic manoeuvre has not gone unnoticed by key Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who are closely monitoring T�rkiye's moves.
Another implication of the October 7 events is that Qatara small nation that has consistently punched above its weight in global diplomacyfaces a potential decline in its regional influence. Doha has served as a hub for negotiations involving high-stakes actors, such as hosting Afghan Taliban leaders and facilitating talks between the Taliban and the U.S., which ultimately led to the Talibans resurgence in Afghanistan. Similarly, Qatar provided a platform for Hamas leaders and mediated efforts to broker peace between Israel and Hamas, attracting attention from figures like the U.S. Secretary of State. However, with Hamas and Hezbollah facing significant setbacks, Qatar may see a reduction in the considerable clout it has built over the past decade.
From the Russian perspective, maintaining a friendly regime in Syria for over 50 years has been crucial to its influence in the Middle East. The naval base in Tartous, operational since 1971, and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia are central to Russia's strategic presence in the region. While the future of these bases remains uncertain, President Vladimir Putin's assertive policies make any immediate evacuation unlikely, even in the event of an unfriendly regime taking power in Damascus.
Putins concerns over Syria may also be mitigated by changes in U.S. leadership. On January 20, Donald Trump is expected to assume office as President of the United States, and his reported mutual admiration with Putin could ease tensions. This shift raises critical questions about the U.S.s role in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the region.
The HTS leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (commonly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani), once labelled a terrorist by the U.S. and Israel, appears to be rebranding himself as a moderate figure. With Assad potentially out of power, the U.S. and Israel have reportedly initiated backchannel discussions with Julani about Syria's future governance. Julani, likely aligned with T�rkiye, may accommodate U.S. interests as well. Its worth noting that the U.S. also maintains a military presence in Al-Tanf, a base in the Homs Governorate controlled by another anti Assad rebel grouping the Free Syrian Army.
Despite HTSs status as the largest rebel group, post-Assad Syria remains deeply fragmented along ethnic and ideological lines. For example, the Kurds in north-western Syria are anti-Turkish and pro-U.S., further complicating the landscape. This fractured environment also makes it easier for Russia to maintain its military foothold,although Julani has stated that the future of Russian bases will ultimately be decided by the Syrian people.
The October 7 Hamas attack in Israel has triggered unexpected geopolitical shifts, bolstering Turkish and U.S. influence, weakening Irans position, dealing a blow to the Palestinian movement, reducing Russian influence and re-establishing Israel as the dominant power in the Middle East.
