Recent statements by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump about taking control of Greenland and the Panama Canal have sparked considerable global interest and concern. Adding to the controversy is his offhand remark to the Canadian Prime Minister suggesting that the U.S. would be open to Canada becoming its 51st state. While this comment may not have been as seriously received as the claims on Greenland and the Panama Canal, it has nonetheless caused a stir. These developments prompt a question: is the United States under Trump set to explore a new era of expansionism?
The truth is, its not just Americans but the world at large that is apprehensive about Trumps unpredictable nature. However, a closer look reveals that these claimsaside from the light-hearted comment about Canadaare not entirely without precedent in U.S. history.
The U.S. has long expressed interest in Greenland, a territory currently under Denmarks administration. For decades, the U.S. military has provided extensive protection to the island, as Denmark lacks the capacity to do so. During the Cold War, Greenland was considered a key defensive outpost for NATO, shielding against potential Soviet invasions via the Arctic. Greenlands strategic importance is further underscored by the GIUK Gap (Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), a critical chokepoint that could be targeted by Russian fleets to disrupt NATO supply lines to Scandinavia.
Moreover, climate change has added a new dimension to Greenlands significance. Melting Arctic ice has extended navigational windows, fuelling ambitions from global powers like China. By staking a claim to Greenland, the U.S. aims to secure a stronger foothold in Arctic geopolitics and gain access to shorter maritime routes to East Asia through the Arctic Circle. In fact for Trump this reason for staking claim is more important than any perceived military threat to the US and NATO from Putins Russia.
The Panama Canal, meanwhile, represents a different kind of strategic interest. Climate change has led to decreased rainfall, reducing water availability for the canals locks. Since heavier ships require more water to pass, lower water levels have increased waiting times and, consequently, transportation costs. This situation has created opportunities for external influence, particularly from China. Subtle manoeuvres by China in its dealings with Panama could pressure the state-run Panama Canal Authority to prioritize Chinese ships, giving China a competitive edge.
Trumps interest in reclaiming control over the Panama Canal may stem from this growing Chinese influence. Historically, the canal was owned and managed by the U.S. until President Jimmy Carter transferred its control to Panamaa move criticized at the time. Today, the long-term strategic implications of that decision are becoming apparent. The US cannot be expected to suffer increasing costs from a canal which in the first place was funded, built and operated by it only to reduce domestic transit costs between its West and East coasts.
From the U.S. perspective, claims over Greenland and the Panama Canal are gaining strategic importance as global temperatures rise and geopolitical competition intensifies. While these ambitions may not align with international norms or legitimacy, but when did the U.S. care about global opinion, when it found its interests at risk.
That said we can expect to see some more geopolitical fireworks as the US- China rivalry plays out more acutely in different areas of the globe post January 20th inauguration ceremony of President Trump.
