The recent events in America have significant implications for current geopolitics, revolving around two crucial Bs. The first B is the bullet that grazed the right ear of US presidential candidate Donald J. Trump, thus narrowly escaping death by a mere millimetre. Trump described his survival as a miracle, attributing it to divine intervention. This near-death experience has revitalized Trumps position in the presidential race. At the recently concluded Republican National Convention, speaker after speaker endorsed Donald Trump as the partys presidential nominee. The bullet that missed him appears to have quashed any remaining opposition within the party. Nikki Haley, previously his staunch opponent within the Republican Party, began her speech with a full endorsement of Trump. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, and Vivek Ramaswamy also offered their support. It seems that Trumps past opponents have resigned themselves to the belief that God has chosen Trump to lead them to another Republican victory.
The second B is the incumbent US President Joe Biden. As it turned out Biden's greatest challenge to re-election in November was not Trump, but his own Democratic Party. Senior members of the party forced him to give up his partys nomination for the presidential election. No doubt the new Democratic candidate might struggle to gain the same traction that Biden has developed over the past four years. News reports suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris will be endorsed as the Democratic Partys nominee but definitely she at present doesnt have the kind of popularity that Joe Biden enjoyed. So Trump not only dodged a literal bullet but also avoided facing Biden, the most popular Democratic candidate, in the upcoming election.
After all providence seems to be favouring Donald J Trump.
With the possibility of a Trump presidency returning in 2025, significant ramifications for global geopolitics are anticipated. Although specific changes will become evident once the presidency begins, a major shift in international affairs can be predicted. To start with the world can expect the mayhem resulting out of the Ukraine- Russia conflict to end soon. Trump has shown a favourable disposition towards President Putin of Russia and has frequently expressed dissatisfaction with U.S. military aid to Ukraine. It is no brainer that if the US military aid is stopped the Ukrainian military will have no alternatives but to capitulate to Russian forces. Furthermore, if U.S. aid ceases, European nations would likely be compelled to align with this new U.S. policy.
The primary influencers in European politics are the UK and France. Historically, the UK's foreign policy aligns closely with American directives, suggesting that British aid to Ukraine would also diminish. The staunchest ally of President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, the French President Emmanuel Macron is too much engrossed with the recent domestic politics of France to really make any difference for the Ukrainian military efforts against Russia.
The Middle East crisis is another area that may see a swift resolution. Trump's animosity towards Hamas and other Islamic fundamentalist organizations is legendary. Unlike the Biden administration, which was never well disposed towards the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus tactics of trying to exterminate Gaza, Trump can be expected to back him to the hilt. Additionally, having previously brokered the Abraham Accords between Israel and major Muslim countries such as the UAE and Bahrain, Trump is keen on establishing a peaceful Middle East once more. This would not only benefit American investments in regional infrastructure development but also reduce Chinese influence. However, this process is likely to further strain US-Iran relations.
Another global hotspot is the relationship between Taiwan and China, which results in ongoing cross-strait tensions. With the advent of the Trump presidency, the looming military threat to Taiwan and Chinese aggression in the South China Sea will come into sharp focus. While the Biden administration was also prepared to address challenges posed by China, Trump is expected to adopt a more aggressive stance towards the Asian giant. If Trump manages to resolve the Ukraine crisis in favour of Putin and lift US sanctions on Russia, the recent camaraderie between Russia and China might diminish. Regardless of how the situation unfolds, geopolitics is sure to become more interesting.
Another area likely to draw Trump's attention is the US strategy of ensuring European security through NATO and other means. During his previous presidency, Trump was outspoken in urging Europe to fund its own security. He insisted that the US military presence on European soil could no longer be taken for granted, and that the wealthy nations of Europe must bear the financial burden. With the potential return of a Trump presidency, significant changes to the European security strategy are anticipated. It is time for Europe to take charge of its own security by striving to establish a unified European military.
Another area of focus, if Trump becomes president again, will be the US attitude towards climate talks. On June 1, 2017, during his presidency, Trump famously announced the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change. However, after Biden took office, the United States officially rejoined the Paris Agreement on February 19, 2021. Observing how a new Trump administration approaches this issue will be of great interest to the world. This will significantly impact the global climate movement in the future.
With Donald J. Trump dodging the bullet literally and with President Biden withdrawing from the presidential race, geopolitics is set for a seismic shift. Barring a successful Democratic reboot, featuring a candidate who can outshine Trump's appeal, this transformative momentum is unlikely to be reversed. As the situation currently unfolds, a profound upheaval in the future political landscape of the United States appears imminent, one that will have far-reaching consequences for the nation and the world.
