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Purple states in the U.S. go by many other names, such as swing states, battleground states, or toss-up states. They refer to states where neither the Republicans nor the Democrats seem to have a clear majority. These are the states where elections are often fiercely contested because the voter split is relatively even. The remaining states are referred to as "red states" or "blue states," depending on whether the Republicans or Democrats have secured the majority of votes.
The reason swing states are so crucial is due to the "winner-takes-all" policy outlined in the US Constitution. This means the winning party in a state gets all the electoral votes, even if the opposing party received some votes. This system effectively renders each state either red or blue (Chart 2), with no in-between. However in the case of Maine and Nebraska these states dont adhere to the winner- takes- all rule and use a district method to send some of the electors to the Electoral College.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the outcome of the entire electoral process will largely depend on how both major parties perform in 11 key swing states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It is in these 11 states the candidatesformer President Donald Trump for the Republicans and Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratsare focusing their campaigns.
Since the remaining 39 states have consistently favoured one party over the other for the past two decades, it would be impractical for the candidates to devote significant time or resources to them. For example, there is little to no campaign activity in California, a solidly Democratic state, or Texas, a Republican stronghold. Meanwhile, swing states like Florida and Wisconsin are experiencing a surge of campaign rallies, political advertisements, and an active social media presence as both parties intensify their efforts to win these crucial battlegrounds.
This study of the electoral prospects of both candidates focuses primarily on the voting patterns in the 11 purple states over the last six elections, beginning in 2000. The spreadsheet (Chart 1) outlines the percentage margin by which a candidate won each state in a given election. The final column displays the overall average winning percentage of the party that has dominated in most of these elections. The number of electoral votes allotted to each of these states is also given in the second column.
To truly grasp the importance of swing states in the upcoming elections, its essential to first examine the key issues that will shape voter preferences. Although both candidates present similar economic proposals, promising tax relief to middle and lower classes, the real points of contention lie in abortion, immigration, and the strength of democracy. Abortion, particularly since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, has taken on greater significance, with 67% of Harris supporters viewing it as a critical issue. Immigration, another hot-button topic, has grown in importance by 9% since the 2020 elections, with 82% of Trump supporters considering it essential.
A third issue, the state of democracy, is also expected to play a pivotal role in the election. The events of January 6, 2021, have heightened concerns about democratic values and may sway voters decisions.While this issue solidifies support for Harris among Democratic-leaning voters, it is also expected to draw some Republican-leaning voters toward the Vice President. Notably, several Republican lawmakers and governors have already voiced their support for the Democratic candidate due to concerns over Trump's agenda.
Before analyzing the swing states, its essential to understand what the remaining 39 states (Chart 2) contribute to each candidate in terms of electoral votes. These confirmed votes, combined with those from the swing states, will determine whether Trump or Harris can surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the high seat at the Oval Office from the 538 total available. As is clear from the spread sheet, Trump is going into this election with an assured 156 electoral votes against Harris 225. Clearly Trump seems to be in the back foot as the Republicans need 115 votes compared to the Democrats requirement of only 45 votes to reach the magic figure of 270.�
But wait a minute. Things may not be that simple for Harris. The purple states can just swing her chances from a clear win to a close defeat.
A quick glance at Chart 1 reveals that most states in the last six elections consistently voted either red or blue, with only small areas showing the opposing party's colour. Notably, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had been reliable Democratic strongholds until Trump flipped them to Republican red in the 2016 election. In 2020, President Biden managed to reclaim these states for the Democrats, though by very narrow margins, particularly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With Trump on the ballot again, Harris may face a repeat of the circumstances that led to the Democrats' historic loss under Hillary Clinton in these traditionally blue states.
A lot of water has flown through the Potomac since 2016, and Donald Trump's four-year presidency has accumulated its fair share of baggage. In contrast, Kamala Harris brings a fresh face to the 2024 presidential election, particularly resonating with Democratic voters and young women through her pro abortion stance. This definitely strengthens the moniker "the Blue Wall earned by these states. However, Trump's anti-immigration policies also strike a chord with many voters, but only time will tell whether if that support is strong enough to breach the Blue Wall.
The 2016 election serves as a cautionary tale, as Hillary Clinton's assumption of these three states as guaranteed wins proved costly. For instance her absence from Wisconsin during the entire campaign period resulted in her narrowly losing the state by 0.69% and the surrender of 10 crucial electoral votes to Trump. Determined to avoid repeating this mistake, Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party are leaving no stones unturned in these elections.
If Harris is able to retain the Blue Wall states, she will reach 269 electoral votes 225 from the reliably blue states, plus 15 from Michigan, 19 from Pennsylvania, and 10 from Wisconsin. This leaves her just one vote short of a majority. So, does her campaign have enough firepower to flip any of the remaining purple states? The most likely candidate is Nevada with 6 electoral votes, which has turned and remained blue since 2008, when Obama wrested it from the Republicans with more than 12% of the popular vote. Since then, the state has stayed loyal to the Democrats, even weathering the Trump juggernaut in 2016.
Now lets assess Trumps prospects and how the purple states might influence his outcome. From Chart 1, it is clear that Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Indianawith 11, 30, 16, and 11 electoral votes respectivelyhave mostly remained red, with occasional patches of blue. In all likelihood, these states will stay loyal to Trump, adding 68 electoral votes to his existing 156 votes. This would bring Trump to a confirmed total of 224 votes. Similarly, North Carolina and Ohio can be expected to contribute another 33 votes, bringing him to 257.
From this point, Trumps real challenge begins. Iowa, with its 6 electoral votes, could be pivotal for him. Though this is generally a red state, it is one of the fiercest battlegrounds, with an average winning margin of only 0.44% in favour of the Republicans. Harris' campaign team is undoubtedly aware of this. Even the slightest misstep by Trumps team could cost him the state. If the Republicans manage to hold onto Iowa, Trump would reach 263 votesjust 7 short of the majority.
From here, Trumps task becomes straightforward: he needs to recreate his 2016 magic and attempt to flip the three key statesMichigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. He has done it once, but can he do it again? If he manages to turn even one of these states red, he will make history as the first President of the United States to reclaim the presidency after a defeat.
For Kamala Harris, keeping these states would help her make her own history as the first woman to occupy the Oval Office.
Just a caveat here, it must be kept in mind, elections are not fought and won on laptops and spreadsheets.
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